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Are Nikon and Canon falling behind in view of Sony launches?

Discussion in 'General Equipment Chat & Advice' started by P_Stoddart, Aug 24, 2011.

  1. Nikon are basically a very conservative company, Canon less so.

    They are better at product "evolvement" and tend not to launch new ideas but develop existing ones.

    This conservative approach does goes down well at the more expensive end of the market after all if you spend £2000+ on a camera, you don't want devastating depreciation.

    At the mid range point where all the new CLCs are being introduced this is obviously not a marketing plus.

    I do expect to see a D400 with the new 24meg Sony sensor soon, but it doesn't move the game on much does it?

    However the news of them possibly adopting the Panasonic/Olympus 4/3rd mount (if true) is interesting. A win for all three companies I would think

  2. daft_biker

    daft_biker Action Man!

    The one that does what my new camera does and not the one that does what my old camera does;)

    As for the LCD and liveview. Well it's about this much use for what I mainly use a SLR for:

    Good eh?:) A flip out screen would be a waste of time for me....a waste of time because my left thumb would have nothing to do when reviewing images or navigating menus and my right thumb would have to do all the moving about and button pressing because the controls have all been shifted to make way for the screen. Is it quicker to type one handed or two handed?....

    You' better hope they don't have Canon TS-E and MP-E lenses or they might just ask you what your gimmicks are for and show you what a proper camera is for;)

    There was a time when I believe Pentax had a higher pixel count on an APS-C sensor than Canon so I'm hopeful Canon will up their pixel counts again soon.....the lots of pixels bit I do like but mostly with the MP-E 65mm and since Sony don't do one there's no point changing.

    What do you plan on doing with tricked-out liveview and 24MP images?
  3. Atavar

    Atavar Well-Known Member

    The latest numerical figures i can find are from Feb 2010 for the UK, over a year ago. (HERE. There have been other figures but in percentage which don't help with making a ratio for you.) Given the figures of 2,909 for CSC and 27,364 for dSLR, the numbers stack out at 9.4 SLR type sold for every one CSC at that point. This doesn't take into account other CSC cameras in the market other than NEX, or that the D5100 or 600D didn't actually exist, but we can only go with the figures we have.

    So there you go. The ratio for the last time we have figures for is 1:9.4 in favour of the SLR.

    As you can see there are a great many flaws in the sums, which have been pointed out already to save you time.
  4. LargeFormat

    LargeFormat Well-Known Member

    Getting on for two years.
    But the NEX cameras weren't available until July 2010 so don't show at all.
    They sure have. If you want to look at the market share trends if CSCs continue to grow at 170% and SLRs decline at 15.4% the former has overtaken the latter but that's also playing with numbers although it is similar to the report in AP on the 15th September 2010.

    What is more interesting is the trend towards mirrorless single lens cameras. If Canon and Nikon follow Sony it is likely that the number of traditional dSLRs will be in a tiny minority.
  5. Atavar

    Atavar Well-Known Member

    It'll mean more cheap second hand D700/5DmkII for us, eh? ;)
  6. DaveG40

    DaveG40 Well-Known Member

    There's more chance of me winning the lottery, than seeing they fancy canon lens thingies ;-), give it time though, Samyang seem to be producing some good stuff, Sony's bringing out it's new fast kit lens and there's always sites like this: http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/hot-new-schneider-kreuznach-tilt-shift-lenses-for-sony/ If i wanted to buy a very expensive lens I'd get a CZ.

    I know a tiny bit about camera's but know enough to help me get by, if you're fashion conscious know nothing about camera's and have very little money (thank you bankers), will it be the trendy little nex 3 (£400 with kit lens), or Nikon D7000 (£1000 with 18-105). Both Canon and Nikon are loosing out on that market, and instead churn out modded versions of a previous model. Given their 40+ years of existence I'd have expected slightly more than a re-hash of the previous models (e.g 600d & 60d), and a d7000 with a decent clever screen etc..
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2011
  7. DaveG40

    DaveG40 Well-Known Member

    To prove my theory that csc's are affecting Canon & Nikon "camera" sales I visited my local comet (Swindon), they had the usual multi-tude of compact p&s cameras of all makes and sizes.

    In the d-slr cabinet they had; 2 d-slr's (a Canon 550d & a Pentax kx), 3 csc's (2 Sony & 1 Panasonic GF3).

    Prior to csc's I can remember seeing several canon & nikon camera's with the odd one or two from Sony, Oly & Pentax in any general electric store, like Comet, Curry's & Dixon's, etc, sadly not every town has a jessops (which tbh is great for trying stuff, as they tend to carry a wide range of stock), or a decent camera shop, and sadly these
    days photography shops seem to be going down faster than Nikon sales, so for a lot of people the only chance they have of seeing a d-slr is in Comet etc, and if they stock less d-slr's than csc's what's going to ship the most ?.

    Personally I don't like csc's (too small, no grip & they look stupid, imho, etc), despite this they are apparently popular, Sony isn't stupid, maybe SLT's are the new d-slr (smaller, lighter & faster, while still looking like a d-slr & producing the iq), finding out the costs would also be interesting. e.g would it cost Sony less to produce the A55 or the A580 ?.

    What my visit did prove without a shadow of doubt (& no there was no empty space on the cabinet), is that Nikon was absent & I am very confident that had Nikon & Canon got off their butts and produced a csc that they'd have been in the cabinet.
  8. Alex1994

    Alex1994 Well-Known Member

    Last edited: Sep 20, 2011
  9. DaveG40

    DaveG40 Well-Known Member

    Looks like good news for the consumer & competition ;-) , it will be interesting to see what the pricing is like, and what success or failure will mean for their main stream d-slr production, could we end up with a 1d SLT ?.

    Here's to another 6 years of Sony leading the way, lol.
  10. MoreOrLess

    MoreOrLess Active Member

    I wouldnt say nesserally shows a large decline in Canikon sales though. It could equally well be that Comet and similar stores have cottened on to the fact that DSLR's don't sell well in there sales enviorment. The highstreet generally has been moving away from more speicalist electronics as that market has tended to move onto the net more IMHO.

    Body sales arent the be all and end all of profit either, I'm guessing margins are actually much higher on lens sales and a quick look at Amazons bestsellers shows Canikon are still very dominant in that market.

    Maybe its because I shoot mostly landscapes and macro but extra megapixels beyond 18 don't appeal to me much on a crop sensor. Honiestly I find I'm often struggling between DOF and difftraction on my 550D so I'm hoping Canon have spent the time since the 7D pushing ISO and espeically dramatic range as far as possible.

    Personally I think that if Canon move into mirrorless they should focus on FF or ASPH where those extra megapixels will actually be useful. Whats more as you move into the higher end of the market I think consumers would be more willing to accept a system based on prime lenses ala Leica that allows for a balanced body unlike the NEX, basically a cheaper M9 with AF and video.
  11. Tim Coleman

    Tim Coleman AP Deputy Technical Editor

    A good thread.

    I hope you'll be interested in an article i'm working on this week which looks into the technology (SLT single lens translucent) of the Sony Alpha 77 and that of the more traditional DSLR, with a Canon EOS 7D:
    EVF v OVF
    moving mirror v fixed mirror
    impact of each technology on low light performance and AF.

    The Alpha 77 definitely poses another alternative to the DSLR as we know it. With the CSC and the SLT camera around, is the DSLR dead?

    Let me know your thoughts on the idea of the article and any areas that particularly interest you.

    nb. a reply to one discussion tangeant - currently interchangeable lens camera market share is split roughly 20-25% CSC and 75-80% DSLR.
  12. MoreOrLess

    MoreOrLess Active Member

    Personally I doubt the SLT has much future to it, to me it just seems like the worst of both worlds. You lose the optical viewfinder that for many is the prime reason behind having a mirror in the first place and you don't save any space. As mirrorless autofocus catches up to mirrored I believe we'll see the SLT die off pretty quickly.

    Personally one point I'd make is that alot of the reason why we've had such diversification in the high end camera market is because Canon and to a lesser degree Nikon have been so sucessful in monopolising the market. Yes some of the diversification will be sucessful but to believe its all being driven by technology thats destined to be sucessful long term is IMHO a mistake.

    I also think its a mistake to believe that mirrorless 4/3rds cameras being sucessful mean that those with larger sensors will also be in the same fashion. The reason for micro 4/3rds sucess is IMHO that it shifted size down to something that was pocketable or at least more easily managble than a DSLR.

    As the sensor size increases though so does lens size, going mirrorless might have some impact on lens size but not IMHO enough to allow for the same size reduction as we saw with micro 4/3 while still keeping a balanced pocketable system. Is that reduction going to be enough to get people to give up an OVF?

    My prediction would be that the larger sensor market will end up being spilt between tradisional DSLR's(albeit perhaps with the high end mdoels downsized a bit) using a wide range of lenses and mirrorless cameras that use mostly prime lenses to keep size down.
  13. daft_biker

    daft_biker Action Man!

    Ooooh...look forward to it:cool:

    Can you do some flash stuff? Is the EVF better than liveview on the 7D (see below) or possibly even better than the optical viewfinder.

    Recently when trying to show why liveview isn't much use to me I took this:

    ....the liveview display is linked to the exposure settings and as I've dialled in settings for flash you can't see anything.(that was 1/250th @ f/9 & ISO 200 if it's a little hard to read, and no the lens cap wasn't on;))

    Presumably the EVF on the Sony is more useful with flash? (i.e. does it let you compose and focus no matter what exposure settings you dial in?)

    I'm keen to hear how the EVF performs in really low light too as I do a fair bit of that too. With my Canon gear I'm often reliant on the wee focus lights on the macro flashes to see anything through the viewfinder.....when things get really dark can the EVF provide a more useful image than the OVF?

    Then again, first things first....can the EVF match the OVF for manual focus work in good light? If it's no good for manual focus in good light I don't suppose the other questions matter.
  14. Benchista

    Benchista Which Tyler

    Well that's very easy to solve on the 7D - simply go into the menu and disable "Exposure simulation" and you'll have what you want. Simples.
  15. daft_biker

    daft_biker Action Man!

    It doesn't open the aperture up though and does next to nothing for me. And by that I'm counting turning black to a noisy grey as something;). (putting the issue of the frequency of the focus lamps on the macro flashes and the refresh rate of the screen creating a scrolling rainbow effect to the side as that happens either way)

    Problem not solved:( In low light the viewfinder is still many times brighter even with the lens wide open to help liveview along....or at least I can still see clearly enough with the viewfinder when it's too dark to see anything useful with liveview. I quite often shoot in conditions where I can't see anything through the viewfinder without focus lamps (or torches) and that's much darker than the point where liveview ceases to be useful on my 7D.

    Can an EVF that is driven by less light than liveview beat liveview never mind the human eye?
  16. Tim Coleman

    Tim Coleman AP Deputy Technical Editor

    you are humble indeed (IMHO!)

    You are of course right that Nikon and Canon have monopolised the DSLR market, but there is nothing to say it will remain that way forever. Leica was once the first choice for most professionals, then came along the Nikon F. Mechanical way the way, then came electronic. If new technology improves the way we do things, then there is no reason to dismiss it. The EVF is still in its infancy, so it is exciting to see its development, which has already come a long way in this 2nd generation. I guess only time and development will tell if this is one technology here to stay.

    btw. We are already starting to see collapsible zoom lenses for M4T so users may not need to stick with primes.
  17. Zou

    Zou Well-Known Member

    For some maybe, but there are many of us who will always prefer a prime to a zoom, regardless of how compact it has become. Especially when (as seems to be the trend) they are motor zooms.
  18. MoreOrLess

    MoreOrLess Active Member

    I wouldnt dismiss all new tech but equally I wouldnt go along with the idea that all new tech is the best solution to a problem thats going to win out in the end. Alot of that is manifactuirer/dealer spiel(IMHO of course ;)) that buyers often repeat to try and justify a purchase.

    In the case of SLT it just seems like a stopgap to me that offers the worst of both worlds, you lose the OVF but don't save any space.
  19. P_Stoddart

    P_Stoddart Well-Known Member

    Sorry I would have to disagree there with "the worst of both worlds". The review in AP of the A77 shows that. SLT fixes two problems that SLR cannot address. Continuous AF and high fps. The only other way (which the Nikon V1/J1 is prototyping) is to build the phase detect into the sensor. But that is unproven technology.

    SLT might for a few years be a stopgap but it will enable the build up of new processing technology and data handling systems within the camera ready for the mirrors to finally be pushed out of cameras. Moving mirrors and possibly focal plane cannot stay when cameras are doing 20fps.

    The new battle ground is fps with high pixel count on a FF sensor. Sony are likely to get there first given the appearance of the A77.

    One area that the AP review did not raise is how does the A77 stack up against the only other three 24MP camera ie Nikon D3x and Sony's own A900/A850.

    Would we say that the A77 is at this time Sony's new flagship?
  20. MoreOrLess

    MoreOrLess Active Member

    I was really talking more about the long term future of SLT. Right now you can certainly argue it offers a combination of AF and FPS you can't get elsehwre(although I would question how many people need more than 10 fps), long term I'd expect mirrorless AF to catch up enough that the need for SLT isnt there anymore.

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