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We could treat the EU elections as a referendum.

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by Learning, Apr 24, 2019.

  1. AGW

    AGW Well-Known Member

    All three wars started in Scotland.

    Graeme
     
  2. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    Beginning to wonder who you know, Mike! ;)
     
  3. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    As they say, you can't have a revolution when everyone is comfortably well off. I still maintain you might be surprised if the question was put to the ordinary people of NI (not the DUP, who have their own agenda).
     
  4. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    Which 'they'?
     
    Zou likes this.
  5. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    A very large part of the protestant majority. When have you ever heard them advocate union with the south?
     
  6. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Anyway, herself has Eurovision on at present. If you hold a referendum right now, I'm definitely for Leave.
     
  7. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Exactly, which "they"?
    Did you mean the majority in NI would not mind union with the south, or the DUP wouldn't? Re-reading your post to see if I missed something.

    Who do you think elected the DUP?
     
  8. AGW

    AGW Well-Known Member

    Yes Eurovision is on the telly just now....I'm using headphone to listen...........to youtube.



    Graeme
     
  9. Trannifan

    Trannifan Well-Known Member

    ....and which majority in NI voted 'Remain' in that referendum?

    Lynn
     
    peterba likes this.
  10. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    The result in Northern Ireland was 55.8% of voters opted to remain in the EU.
    Northern Ireland, Scotland and London were the only areas of the UK that voted in the majority to remain.
     
  11. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    We all know how badly the first past the post system works. If 55.8% of voters in NI voted to remain in the EU, why not ask them if they want to be part of a unified Ireland? Of course the DUP wouldn't. We can't of course ask a NI parliament, so you are basing your opinion, it seems, on the DUP's political affiliation to the Tories. What of the Stormont Assembly? How much credence can we give to the DUP that the assembly has not been in operation for over 2 years now? Who are the extremists? The only voice we hear is the representatives in the UK parliament. Even they are now no longer on TMs side.
     
  12. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Both sides did.

    One of my oldest friends in the business in Belfast, David Lyle OBE, is a staunch remainer and leading member of the Protestant community.

    But David got his honour for creating the peace keeping campaign that was recognised as a major factor in achieving peace and Good Friday. I see he now lectures on it and rightly so, a lot was visible, but a lot was not. Clinton met him and congratulated him, but his profile was kept low because he was a target. He never sat with back to the window, brave man. I was invited to go to Moscow in about 2002 to brief Russian ministers on it, which was very interesting, to say the least. Many behaviour-change things David's agency produced were copied by governments all round the world. Sadly they ceased trading two years ago, but he, more than anyone would be aware of the danger they face.
     
  13. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    I would have to guess rather less of the Protestant community than Scots who would want to join with the Irish Republic as a united EU entity.
     
  14. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    One thing this whole debacle has shown me (although I knew it already) is to assume nothing. Accept media reports? Accept the voices in Parliament? The more we find out, the less respect I have for it all.
     
  15. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Well it depends what bits of it you read. But my understanding of the ultimate goal of all Protestants is to never live under a Catholic majority. Can't see that's any myth created by the media. Best to pop along to the next Orange march and sample opinions on that.
     
  16. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    A somewhat biased population for a sample, don't you think?

    I do recall when working for Audits of Great Britain, asking what would happen if advertising didn't happen? I was told - don't go there! I'm afraid we are going to differ in our acceptance of what is a representative population.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  17. Learning

    Learning Ethelred the Ill-Named

    The unionists lost overall power in the last Stormont election in 2017. Balance of power is held by the Alliance party. In the UK election the DUP gained 2 extra seats to total 10 and Sinn Féin gained 3 to total only 7. There is also an independent unionist . The Alliance party got no MPs because of the first past the post system of election. Based on the result of the UK election it would seem that Sinn Féin would lose a referendum on NI leaving UK. However looking at the Stormont results it seems that a referendum could go either way. It is likely that the Brexit issue might encourage many Alliance supporters to vote to leave UK. Twill be interesting to see how power shifts in 2022.
    Back in 1998 the majority population of NI voted to approve the multiparty component of the Good Friday agreement although the DUP opposed it. That was a clear sign that the DUP was begining to lose is grip on NI. I would be very surprised indeed if NI is still part of UK after another five years. That would be the end of the Irish Border Issue.
     
    Catriona likes this.
  18. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Would be a good result if it could happen. But I believe the South has done little to promote the idea for fear of the extreme element that would be dragged kicking and screaming along with them. I believe they always felt that Britain was far more able to control Catholic extremism than they could Protestant. But of course could change over time.
     
  19. RovingMike

    RovingMike Crucifixion's a doddle...

    Oh indeed.

    But there is a lot of good stuff on it here: https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-poll-3-4059433-Jun2018/

    I'm sure you'd agree that an online sample, being self-selected has little chance of matching the accuracy of a sample survey and the idea that people might be more honest in their opinions is mere speculation. A properly constructed questionnaire should overcome that. So support for a united Ireland could be as low as 20%, but it has to be the case that Brexit is driving people towards the solution that makes economic sense.

    But I was always talking about the fringe extremists and I doubt they care much for the views of their more liberal countrymen. The Republic could find itself chomping on a wasp.
     
    Catriona likes this.
  20. Catriona

    Catriona Well-Known Member

    This is an interesting article on the religious breakdown of Northern Ireland.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506
     

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